Bitcoin’s path to a bear-market bottom appears longer than some expect, according to recent onchain analysis focusing on the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric—a tool regarded as one of the clearest indicators of market cycles. The current NUPL readings show Bitcoin remains in a phase where further price declines are possible before a sustainable low becomes apparent.

NUPL measures the unrealized profits or losses within the Bitcoin supply, comparing the price holders last moved their coins against the current price. The 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) of this metric, known as a "cycle clock," has historically crossed below zero only at significant market bottom points in Bitcoin’s past bear cycles. These prior bottoms coincided with lows near $2 in 2011, $182 in 2015, $3,206 in late 2018, and approximately $15,792 during the 2022 crash following the FTX collapse.

Currently, Bitcoin’s NUPL 100-day EMA remains above zero, hovering around 0.215, indicating that the market has yet to enter the deeply negative territory that has historically marked cycle lows. While Bitcoin’s price exceeded $60,000 previously, this metric implies a substantial margin remains for price depreciation before matching those established bear-market troughs.

Notably, analysts from CryptoQuant emphasized that Bitcoin’s historical data reveals a pattern—not an unbreakable rule. While the 100-day EMA has dropped below zero at every preceding bottom, it’s possible this cycle could bottom without crossing that threshold, consistent with recent trends showing shallower corrections over time.

Market watchers are closely monitoring the NUPL zero line as a critical level in the weeks ahead. A breach below zero would reinforce the traditional signal of a bear-market bottom, while failure to do so might suggest a new pattern of market behavior.

Additional onchain indicators present mixed signals about Bitcoin's immediate price trajectory. Some metrics suggest that typical end-of-bear-market conditions, such as widespread supply capitulation, remain months away. This underlines a broader theme that the current state of the market more likely represents an ongoing process rather than a completed downturn.