Bitcoin remains entrenched in what analysts describe as deep value territory, trading below critical cost-based levels for about five months. Despite recent price fluctuations between $58,300 and $64,400, the cryptocurrency struggles to break above key thresholds that historically indicate market recovery.
A closer look at on-chain data reveals that long-term holders now account for nearly half of all realized losses, a sharp increase from earlier this year. These investors, who typically hold their coins through downturns, are offloading assets acquired near Bitcoin’s previous peak, driven by exhaustion after extended declines. This wave of selling represents the heaviest sustained loss absorption since December 2022.
The current price, hovering below the True Market Mean of $76,600 and the short-term holder cost basis of $72,200, paints a cautious picture. Glassnode, an analytics firm tracking these movements, warns that until the price reclaims these levels, rallies should be viewed skeptically. The peak daily losses realized by long-term holders now exceed $280 million — a second major capitulation phase this cycle, which has yet to show definitive signs of fading.
Interestingly, emerging signals suggest a complex shift beneath the surface. Some long-term holders have begun net accumulation of Bitcoin, purchasing at current prices even as they sell deeply underwater coins. More Bitcoin is now held at a loss than a profit, indicative of supply changing hands in a classic bottom-building process. This dynamic could underpin the eventual stabilization of prices once selling pressure exhausts itself, as observed in previous market cycles.
Meanwhile, institutional participation remains muted compared to last year, although ETF outflows have slowed. Analyst forecasts vary widely, ranging from scenarios anticipating a deeper crash to those suggesting the market floor may already be established. However, consensus emphasizes that a confirmed recovery hinges on Bitcoin surpassing established cost-basis levels and a sustained decline in loss realization across long-term holders.